Doomsday Awaits: How the Gita Can Save Earth
Questioner: You had said at one point that 2025 is going to be a decisive year, the most dangerous year. So, I want to understand from you why you said this. Why is 2025 going to be dangerous for us?
Acharya Prashant: These people have come to say, 'Happy New Year,' and right at the start, it's clear that 2025 is going to be the most dangerous year so far. 'Scary New Year' instead of 'Happy New Year.'
The reason isn't just sitting here in the next one, two, or ten years; it's a very broad and long reason, and its impact will be felt for centuries. There are some wounds that heal in a year or four years; we don't call those very dangerous injuries. But this is like a disease that they say can't be treated even in 100,000 years. They say even on Centennial and Millennial time scales, it won't be possible even in them and the clock is ticking; we don't have much time. That's why I said, after much careful thought and responsibility, that this is the most dangerous New Year in human history so far — 2025.
There's the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. In this, I'll tell you some things in between; take whatever information that will help you understand the whole thing. So, under this, people meet every year, like how they had met in Baku. All countries have meetings there; it's called the Conference of Parties (COP). At the 15th COP in Paris, there was the Paris Agreement. The Paris Agreement said in 2015 that the current carbon emissions levels need to be reduced by 45% by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050.
Why were these figures set? They were set to keep the global temperature rise below 2°C. That was the goal. They said they wanted 1.5°C, but even if 1.5°C isn't possible, the temperature rise shouldn't go above 2°C. We made this agreement in 2015 with 195 countries together, and everyone understood that stopping at 2°C was very important. So, the goal was to stop temperature rise; 1.5°C was set as the target, and for that, the suggested path was to cut emissions by almost half by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050.
What is net zero? It's when whatever you emit is naturally absorbed by ecosystems. Overall, there is no carbon addition to the atmosphere from human activity; that's net zero. They said net zero should happen by 2050, and by 2030, you should reduce about 45%. And for this, all countries had sat together, and after long negotiations, they had set their NDCs respectively.
What is an NDC? Nationally Determined Contribution. So, each country made its own goal for how much they would reduce emissions. These goals were quite different for everyone because all countries have different economic backgrounds. Some are rich, some are poor, some have high emissions like India, but some have very low per-capita emissions. So, it was also decided that developed countries, who historically emitted more emissions, would give money, economic help to developing countries so that they can cut their emissions. Many things were discussed, but the essence of that was that emissions need to be reduced by 45% by 2030.
For emissions reduction and progress on reducing these emissions, they said they would meet every year at COP, and every five years, they would check how much of your targets you have achieved and set targets for the next five years based on that. So, targets were made in 2015 for 2020, and then in 2020 for 2025. Next year, they will be budgeting again for who needs to go where. In 2025, we're all going to categorically set our emission target levels again globally. This is happening in 2025.
So, we had said that by 2030, we would reduce 45%. We celebrated, distributed sweets. Now I'm asking you, that 2024 has come, 10 years will be completed in 2025. We had given ourselves 15 years between 2015 and 2030. We spent 10 years of that and this year we're going to set our budgets again. This will be all country's final National budgets to reach 2030. So, tell me where have we reached?
We had to reduce by 45%, and our current curve, our trajectory, what is it saying about how much we have reduced or what we have done? What we have done is that all the NDCs set by all the countries worldwide, even if you follow them 100%, will only result in a 2% reduction in emissions. This is your best-case scenario, and it's not like you're even achieving the targets you have set.
The Paris Agreement said to do this much by 2030. Okay, this much needs to be done; that's an aggregate figure. Now, this aggregate figure was divided among all countries—194 countries and 195 European Union. They divided it among themselves, setting their own targets. These targets that were set, even if fully achieved, will only result in a 2.6% reduction in emissions. Even if it is fully achieved, then what do you think? How much is actually being achieved? Most of the countries aren't even achieving half of their stipulated targets.
When we look at the target completion percentage, India is among the countries at the bottom. Though it's different that even if you achieve your set target NDC, how much total reduction will you achieve from it — 2%. When it needs to be 45%, and even if you achieve your set national target completely of carbon reduction, and even if you achieve it, then how much will you be able to do — 2%. And we are not even able to achieve this.
The fact is, forget carbon emission reduction; carbon emissions are increasing year by year.
And how quickly we need to reduce them, understand this from the fact that we said that we need to almost half them by 2030. We were standing at an emergency; we knew this in 2015. We said to reduce by half by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050. The first dishonesty was that after the agreement, when they came back, each country returned and set their own different goals. So, they cheated in the goals themselves. These goals were such that even if fully followed, nothing would be achieved.
And even these minimal goals show no signs of being met at all. We need to reduce carbon emissions so quickly, even if you reduce a bit slower, something very terrible will happen. We need to reduce so fast. If you reduce even at this fast pace, if the decrease slope is even slightly less, then it's still a kind of apocalypse. And forget about how fast it's reducing; it's not reducing; it's increasing and increasing and increasing.
If you look at the global temperature rise curve, it is increasing at an increasing rate. Not only is it increasing when we mean to decrease, not only is it increasing but it's also accelerating. This is where we stand. Why did the Paris Agreement say to stop at 1.5°C? Why? Because something very special starts happening at 1.5°C, between 1.5°C and 2° C. By the way, you must know that 1.5°C, the long-term goal we had set for wanting to stop global warming at 1.5°C forever by 2050 and after 2050 — we broke that in 2024 itself. Did you get this news or not?
We had said 1.5°C is the maximum rise after which the term "livable planet" applies. After 1.5°C, the planet won't remain livable. Why won't it remain livable? We'll come to that very soon. But that long-term limit of 1.5°C we had set for ourselves, we had crossed that in 2024 itself. We've reached 1.54°C. The only thing is that it won't be formally acknowledged yet because this data is just from one or two years — 2023 and 2024. It gets formally acknowledged in climate when long-term trends are taken.
So, when it's seen for 10-20 years that it's constantly above 1.5°C, then it will get official acknowledgment that yes, it has happened. Everyone was clear that something very dangerous happens at 1.5°C — very dangerous. There's a tipping point at 1.5°C. What happens at that point? Well, before I ask what happens, it's clear that the 1.5°C matter is now far behind us. We can't stop it now; it's gone.
We made a joke with ourselves in Paris. In Paris, we said we need to reduce emissions 45% by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050. That was a joke we made with ourselves. Forget reducing; we've increased it even more.
Is this becoming clear? What happens at 1.5°C? Between 1.5°C and 2°C, feedback cycles become active, after which it's no longer in your hands to stop temperature rise in any way. You can't stop it now.
Meteorology isn't an exact science, so we can't say that it will happen exactly at 1.5°C or at 1.62°C or that some cycles activate at 1.5°C while others at 1.8°C. But scientists believe that all these cycles — I’ll talk to you about them too — all these cycles begin to activate between 1.5°C and 2°C, and these cycles are mutually reinforcing. Meaning when one cycle starts, it causes another cycle to start just because of its activation.
How do these cycles work? We'll understand. Some of these, I've talked about many times, so you would know them, and some new ones I'll tell you today in the joy of new year.
First, there's the ice. Whether it's Arctic or glacial, ice is white in color, right? So when sunlight falls on it, when radiation hits it, then what will it do? It reflects it back. When it reflects back, that heat absorption doesn't happen, right? So this work was done by the ice. But due to temperature rise, ice is melting. When ice melts, then what gets exposed from underneath? Rocks or sediments, or sometimes soil. So these are of what color? They are dark-colored. When they are dark-colored, then what do they do? They absorb radiation. And when they absorb, what will happen then? They'll get hot. When they get hot, then the ice above them or the ice beside them will melt more.
When more ice melts, then more of this rocky dark matter, which is dark, will be more exposed. When it's more exposed, it'll get hotter. When it gets hotter, more ice will melt. And when more ice melts, it'll be more exposed. And when more exposed, it'll get hotter. And when hotter, more ice will melt. And now you can't stop this. Now you can't stop this. This cycle has started.
So that's it; now you can't stop it. And how far it will go? About this, the world's leaders don't say anything to their people. They stay quiet. But this 6°C, 7°C, 8°C — who knows how far it can go? It's pointless to even talk because there won't be anyone left to talk to. We are very delicate people, especially our human species: Homo sapiens. We can only live within a very narrow temperature range.
We are not dependent on forests; we need to grow crops, and our crops only grow in certain places. They demand certain types of rain; they demand certain types of temperatures. They also demand that if wind blows, how much it should blow, how much it shouldn't blow. If it rains, then in which season it should and which season it shouldn't. So humans are tremendously dependent on nature; this is a fact.
And we have increased the population so much that feeding it is a very sensitive issue. So something will happen as soon as these cycles activate. That is better not to discuss it. Coming to cycles, there are many. We're talking about ice, permafrost. What is permafrost? Permafrost is in Siberia, Alaska, Canada. It is that rock or soil in these places which stays frozen continuously.
And when it stays frozen, then it holds within it — a lot of carbon inside it, keeps it bound. How much carbon is in permafrost? As much carbon as is in Earth's entire atmosphere times two. But this was sequestered until now; it was bound, was locked. Why was it locked? Because ice was covering it. As ice keeps melting, this carbon is coming in contact with oxygen and is getting released into the atmosphere, becoming carbon dioxide.
When oxygen needs organic matter, then still less damage happens, from that only carbon dioxide forms. But when that organic matter, which is in soil and in rock, doesn't get enough oxygen, then its anaerobic oxidation happens, and then carbon dioxide doesn't form; then methane forms. And methane's global warming potential is 85 times that of carbon dioxide. Meaning the heat that 85 molecules of carbon dioxide would trap, that much heat one single molecule of methane traps.
This permafrost is melting, and it's melting very fast. And from its melting, both carbon dioxide and methane are being released into the atmosphere. Understanding what I'm saying? And you can’t stop this. Once it starts melting, then what will it release into the air? Methane. And as soon as methane goes into the atmosphere, what will it do? It will increase temperature more. When it increases temperature, then permafrost will melt more. When it melts more, then what will go into the atmosphere? More methane. When that goes, then it'll increase temperature more. You can't stop this. Even if you do net zero, it won't stop.
Now, net zero means that from human activity, we won't add any additional carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. You would not do that, you may not add, but still, this cycle has activated. So now what's the use of regret? Now do whatever you want to do. Temperature now — this is called runaway climate change, which you can't stop. This is what the term "carbon bomb" is used for, which you can't stop. It has a chain reaction now that has started. So now it's happened so you won't be able to stop it.
Similarly, there are peatlands. What are peatlands, and why are we talking about them? Because after permafrost, they have held the most carbon inside them, always. What kind of place is this? You know wetlands, right? What are wetlands? Flooded places where water stays covering the ground or rocks or soil or organic matter. It stays almost always; water stays covering there almost always.
When water stays covering there almost always, then there's less oxygen, right? Organic matter is there, and water is constantly covering it. Like a wetland, so when water is covering, then the organic matter below won't get much oxygen, or will it get it? It'll get very little, whatever is dissolved in water. So its decay happens anaerobically; a lot of methane gets stored there.
How much methane do peatlands store? More than all the carbon dioxide that Earth's forests store. That much carbon dioxide equivalent is stored in peatlands, and these peatlands, they are drying up. As Earth keeps getting warmer, they are drying up. The reason for drying isn't just that Earth is getting warmer; it's also that you go there and do urban development, or the peat, that’s there has many uses in horticulture and fuel, you extract that peat.
These peatlands are drying up, so all the methane and carbon dioxide that was trapped under the water, now what's happening to it? It's getting exposed. It's getting exposed to where? It's going into the atmosphere. When it goes into the atmosphere, then it's increasing temperature more. When it increases more, then peatland is drying more.
And from this permafrost and peatland, so much carbon dioxide comes out that human activity could never even release that much. From human activity, so much has come out that since the Industrial Age, from 1750 till now, we have taken it from 280 PPM to about 430 PPM. This is our doing. But by doing this, we have awakened such a demon that's releasing much more carbon into the atmosphere than our activity. This is a fact, and all this has started.
But leaders aren't telling their people about this. This matter is being hidden from the people. Why is it being hidden? Because if you have to meet carbon emission targets, then your concept of development and the kind of electoral dreams sold to people will have to be stopped. So no leader is openly telling their country's people how close you've come to doom. No one is telling.
In America, leaders have even taken America out of the Paris Agreement in 2020, then brought it back in 2021. But they're still saying that no, we don't believe climate change is anthropogenic. Where it has been accepted, I told you what national targets we have chosen for reduction, how childish they are, like it's a joke. Even if you achieve those targets, then what did we say? How much percentage reduction will happen? 2%. But how much to do? How much? 45%.
No leader, no politician is telling their country the truth because this truth is very, very bitter.
This truth will tell us that leave all other businesses, keep all the priorities aside; straight up, it's a question of your existence, especially if you're young now, and you have children, etc., then you're living straight up hell's fire for your children.
Today, if your child gets a little sun or heat, then you say, "Oh, what happened to my child?" Power goes out; AC doesn't run; your child gets troubled. And you're leaving straight up hell's fire for your child. But this thing, no leader will tell. The media isn't covering it because covering it will mean an earthquake will come completely.
So everyone is absolutely in a fool's paradise. Fool's paradise means a foolish person who's thinking everything is fine, and he is just not foolish; he is dishonest. So dishonest that if someone comes and tells him the truth, he'll reject the truth and will tear up the truth teller's face. This is happening in the whole world, in India too.
We were talking about the feedback cycles. Coming to the oceans, there are three or four types of feedback cycles that are directly related to the ocean. Starting right from the ocean surface, when temperature increases, then obviously more water will become vapor. Evaporation, and this water vapor itself is a tremendous greenhouse gas.
You'll be surprised to know that more than half the world's greenhouse effect isn't from carbon dioxide but from water vapor. Because water vapor is present in abundance; 70% of the surface area is oceans, right? So there, water vapor is very present. And when temperature will increase, then water vapor will also increase; more will vaporize, right? That will increase climate change more. When climate change increases, then its vaporization, evaporation will also increase.
So vapor will increase; vapor increases, then more heat will happen, and more heat will happen, then more vapor will be increased. And all this is happening. This happens on the surface. Similarly, the oceans' carbon-carrying capacity is inversely proportional to temperature. When temperature increases, it becomes difficult for water to absorb carbon dioxide.
So as our oceans get hotter, the carbon sink work they used to do—there are two types of carbon sinks in nature: the bigger ones are the ocean and the forest. So our oceans, which do the work of carbon sink, that work of theirs is getting weaker. Temperature will increase, then the carbon dioxide concentration, their carrying capacity keeps decreasing. They can absorb less carbon dioxide, and water vapor forms more. Both ways, you're done.
This was the activity on the ocean surface. We are talking about feedback cycles. Now you go a little down in the ocean. When you go down, then you know corals, right? Fossils that make reefs, those beautiful, beautiful pictures used to come earlier. Now comes that coral reef is destroyed. So these corals, their activity starts becoming slow, weak with temperature increase because nature made them to work at a specific temperature.
So all the organic work they had done from before, that also starts breaking, scattering. It’s oxidation starts happening, and from that, both carbon dioxide and methane start generating. This happens in the middle of the ocean. This is also a cycle. The more your ocean will keep getting hot, the more coral reefs will keep getting destroyed, and the more they'll get destroyed, the more they'll keep emitting carbon.
Now going down in the ocean, methane hydrates lie at the ocean bottom. Our ocean floor has methane hydrates in it, and they stay stable at a temperature. Chemistry’s simple formula is that every compound isn't stable at every temperature. Many are there that just heat them, and they break. You know that, right?
So these methane hydrates lie at the ocean floor, and there they are stable. But as temperature is increasing, they're breaking, and they're releasing methane, and that methane is reaching the atmosphere. 70% of Earth's area, which is surface area, that is of oceans. So think how much area these hydrates are lying on, and from there, what quantity of methane is coming out. And all this is happening continuously now, happening continuously. Understand what I'm saying. Seems very distant? Okay, the ocean is distant. So this, all of us — this soil also, when it gets hot, then organic matter in it, its oxidation happens. This soil itself starts emitting carbon dioxide as temperature increases.
We talked about ice; we talked about ocean; we talked about soil. Now let's talk about forests —how these feedback cycles are activating in forests. A tree is there, which absorbs carbon dioxide; this we all know. So if the ecosystem is green, thriving, natural, healthy, then pulling work happens, keeps absorbing carbon dioxide. This is called sequestering.
Let's see that carbon dioxide, which would have stayed in the atmosphere, could have been harmful. Tree made it, what? Tree made it trunk, made it leaf, made it fruit, made it vegetable. So the tree does big magic; it takes carbon dioxide and makes good things from it. But the same tree, when it falls, then its organic material, that trunk, it will decompose.
And when it decomposes, decomposition, you all know, is an oxidation process. When it decomposes, then it will release carbon dioxide. Completely opposite will happen. No matter where it used to absorb carbon dioxide, it is now releasing it. It used to be a carbon sink; the forest has become a carbon source.
In the Amazon, in the Congo Basin, and in Southeast Asia, tropical forests — this is happening where very big areas have become net carbon sources, meaning that with the forest being there, more carbon is emitting. Why? Forest fires came, you increased temperature so much in all the world's countries in 2022, in 2023. To what extent forest fires happened, that you all know, right?
When forest fire will happen, then what will happen? Everything will burn. When everything will burn, then what will happen? Carbon dioxide will emit. Besides this, when heat increases in the atmosphere, then from that, all types of extreme weather events will happen, like more rain happen, more rain will happen then what will happen to the tree? It will fall. When it falls, then it will decompose.
Tremendous storm came, tremendous storm will come then what will happen to trees? It will fall, when fall then will decompose. So the same trees, who had absorbed the world's carbon inside them, the same trees, we have created such an environment, such weather for them that the same trees, now are emitting carbon. They will live, then absorb, and will fall or burn, then it will emit. And this is happening. The more you're increasing temperature, that many cyclones are increasing. Cyclones are increasing, so what's happening to trees? They're falling.
Besides this, as the weather changes like that, for a tree to reach its full height becomes completely impossible. A tremendous kind of cyclone comes; who knows how many trees will be uprooted? If the rain's whole pattern changes, then from where will the tree stand? Firstly, it won't stand — meaning the absorption of carbon dioxide that it was doing, won't happen. Secondly, as much as the trees are left, even that won't remain; it will fall. When it falls, then it will emit more.
And this, I'm not talking about anthropogenic emissions right now. I'm not talking about our energy and transport sector, how much carbon it emits. I'm not talking about that; our food industry and agriculture, how much carbon they emit. I'm talking about natural feedback cycles, which aren't even anthropogenic, which aren't even in our complete control.
Means you completely become a saint; you say, "I have reformed; I've become a simple person now; I won't emit any carbon." Mistake happened; forgive me. You may even do this, but still, now matter isn't going to stop. The arrow has left, and this is when you become sane. We have no preparation to become sane now.
Now tell, should we welcome with swag — 2025? This year again, all countries, India too, to deceive themselves, will make new targets for 2030. How will you make them? From 2015 to 2025, extreme level dishonesty and cunning we've done. Now, from 2025 to 2030, how will you do the magic? You didn't do small work; then how will you do the big work?
This is almost like a person had to walk 3 kilometers in 3 days. Okay, he is so lazy and cunning that in two days, he worked 50 meters. In 3 days, how much he had to work? Means 3,000 meters. In 2 days, he had walked 50 meters and is saying, "No problem; last day, we'll walk 2,950." Can this happen? If you could walk that much, then you would have walked something the first two days.
In 2025, all countries together will again lie to each other and with themselves. There's no way that in 2030 even 1% reduction can happen. 45% is quite far. Our carbon emission level is increasing every year. The PPM CO2 is there in the atmosphere; we're adding to it every year, not reducing it. And nature has now taken matter in its own hands. It's saying, "Now I'm watching."
Now feedback cycles are with nature, not with us. And all these feedback cycles reinforce each other.
For example, if permafrost is melting, when ocean vaporization is also increasing, one cycle is reinforcing another cycle. And among themselves, all these are giving each other a kind of compounding effect.
And in this whole process, what carbon dioxide we are adding, that's separate. What we are adding, that's separate only. Now, inside Earth, a very tremendous type of carbon is filled—just as much carbon as on Earth's surface. And surface means not just where soil is a little deep but even up to the atmosphere. In that, it's a very small percentage.
This carbon that's filled in our atmosphere, where did it come from? Did it come from Mars planet? Where did it come from? It came from Earth's surface only, right? And we, to fulfill our greed, keep digging Earth continuously in every way. It's Earth's carbon only, this soil, the rocks beneath it. This carbon is only what's going up. From beneath the ground, methane and carbon dioxide can also come out or from below - fuel, oil, gas can also come out; which when you burn them, then it becomes carbon dioxide.
But in the atmosphere, however much carbon dioxide is there, it came from Earth only. And from Earth, it didn't come by itself. We took it out for greed. The Earth, which we keep digging in every way, keep destroying, and it's carbon that is coming here. Human history's 16 consecutive hottest months are happening now. Not one or two; in the last 16 months, in sequence, human history's hottest months are going on now.
We don't even need to think. Now we know next month will come; it will be human history's hottest month. And we know this too that it could be a very cold month. For example, if you talk about January 2025, it's going to be very hot, like December is hot. This December is — in this what average temperature is that too is more. And what average precipitation — that too is very much more. Neither does it rain in December, nor does the environment stay so hot in December.
Our industries — woolen clothes sellers, heater sellers, all these are going in loss. It's a very hot December, and rain is also happening too. Umbrella ones are not understanding why we miss? Heater ones are saying, 'We should come in the umbrella business. Will that work?' This decade is going on; this is human history's still day, the hottest decade.
The World Meteorological Organization, on its homepage, ever since industrial activity started till today, climate change curve is there. Show that curve to everyone. (Asking the volunteer.)
That curve isn't that; it's like this. (Explaining the shape of curve with his hand posture- An upward direction.)
We call ourselves, an intelligent species. Perhaps we'll be the first species on Earth to self-destruct. Intelligent! We say other species don't have intelligence, knowledge, consciousness.
Let me tell you —
Humans will be the first and only species on Earth that has wiped itself out completely. And still, you'll find many smart alecks who will say this is all a hoax.
Tell me, where is the heat? If it's so cold, why are you wearing this? Take it off.
When Trump was the US president last time, one day it was very cold. It was very cold one day, and he said, "Where is climate change? It's already so cold. What global warming?" And there was a girl from Northeast India who said, "Uncle, first go to class 4 and learn the difference between weather and climate. You don't even know the definition." It's not just one person. By saying such things, someone won the presidential election in the world's most developed country. The dangerous thing is that to win elections, you have to say such things. The dangerous thing is that whoever is winning elections worldwide is winning by saying such things.
For the last six, seven years, the right-wing has been getting very strong worldwide. And also, the right-wing either has an inferior stand on climate change or complete denial. You understand climate denial, right? It's not happening; there's no such thing. All the scientists are lying. And the more leaders who say such things, the more votes they get.
While this slide is coming, let me tell you something interesting. There are four and five curves that you can do as an activity for yourself: Human population growth, concentration of atmospheric CO2, global GDP growth, global industrial production, and obviously atmospheric temperature rise. Put these curves side by side and see what you find out.
When you look at all these curves from 1750 to 2020, what will you see? Then all these curves are exactly the same — completely identical. The matter is very simple.
There are two things that are killing our planet, our species, all species: first, 'Population', and second, 'Consumption'.
Population and Consumption—it's that straightforward. It doesn't even need much science.
Our species has increased its population more and more and more and consumed so much and destroyed everything. Obviously, if there's still any solution possible — to the extent that possibility remains — otherwise, once feedback cycle activates, the possibility of survival starts decreasing. If there's still any possibility of survival, then it's only this: reduce these two things—population and consumption.
And population and consumption aren't two different things; they both come from the same human tendency. What? Consume, Consume. The basic ego, which is deep ignorance, is what makes us do both these things. And therefore, people who do these things do both things. You won't find a person who's doing only one of these two. Common people have both desires: we should become many, and we should consume a lot because both these desires are the same. Let me consume, and let me consume from as many hands, as many bodies, as many mouths as possible.
The work your organization is doing is the solution. It is the only solution, and it becomes a very healthy situation when you know what the solution is, but you have no way to execute that solution. There is no way to execute it.
I have only one way that I'm telling you repeatedly in as many ways as possible. Apart from that, I have no say in policy-making nor in your decisions.
(The Slides are being shown.)
This is it. If you show from 1750, it will be clearer, but this is understandable, right? This isn't 400 PPM right now. Okay, this is still 2018. In 2018, it's 400 PPM; now it's 430 PPM.
Nature knows its work very well. The curve is flat. See since when is it flat? Who knows since when it's flat? (Asking the volunteer). Can you please show the X-axis to the people? How would they come to know otherwise? Yeah, this is better. This will work. And this same curve is also the human population growth curve. That means humans are born only to emit carbon.
There are some curves where earlier data isn't available, but from where it's available, see all curves look exactly the same. The underlying philosophy in our lives is the cause of all these curves. Our underlying philosophy is: don't know yourself; go out and consume. Don't look at yourself; keep consuming whatever is outside. It has done this.
And world population and carbon dioxide — the first two curves look at them carefully. Wasn't it fun? They're exactly the same, right? Okay, people just ask how to reduce CO2 concentration. Yeah, look at it.
(All the curves are displayed on the screen one after another.)
This way, similarly, look at the forest loss curve and population curve. And when I said, "If a child is born today, it's born on the corpses of thousands and lakhs of plants, animals, and trees," people felt very bad. They said, "Why are you saying this? If a child is born, then will it cut lakhs of trees, kill lakhs of animals?"
Look at the first curve and look at the last curve. Look at the first and last curve and tell me, did I say anything wrong? That if a child is born today, it means one child's birth means you kill lakhs of animals and cutting lakhs of trees? Did I say anything wrong? Look at the first and last curve.
You can add more curves to this — material production, how much industrial production we are doing annually. That curve is also exactly like this. The same ignorant tendency that compels us to produce more and more children, the same tendency tells us, "Now consume too, so more things should be there. Now, three or four children are there, so we need to take a bigger house. How will so many people travel on one scooter? So we need to take a car."
What we call family is a unit of society. Think with some patience — family is the unit of consumption. Our family and social system is made only so that we increase our numbers and, in the name of prosperity, destroy the Earth even more. This was what was going on. It went on for a long time. It could go on until 1850, it could go on until 1900 too. Now, it cannot go on.
So no one should argue, "Should we break the system that's been going on for thousands of years?" This wasn't happening for thousands of years. What has happened has happened suddenly and very intensely, so don't give the argument of thousands of years and cry about it.
Today, you need new ways of living if you want to live. You can't live in old ways.
Old desires won't work now — that we did education so that money comes, so that I'll buy a house, so that I'll do this, do 50 things. You have to set up a new industry, have to cut forests, you have to show man's conquest of nature. And happy life means, "See, I'm the world's richest man, so I have 12 children from five women." You are animals from 2,000 years ago; they used to do all this. Any slightly aware person today will see this, right?
All these are statistics, or am I just talking nonsense? We can debate with them, and you can stop me by debating. But the feedback cycles that have all activated — will you stop them? Will you stop them?
We said forest is the biggest thing. If you could show one more curve here — that what percentage of Earth's total area was covered by forest area in the 16th century, 17th century, and at present — then you'll see something very tremendous — 50%. For a very long time, 50% of Earth's area was filled with forests — 50%. Now, how much is it? 30%
Below 50%, this Earth can't run at all, if you understand it like that. If humans don't misbehave, then how much area on Earth will have forests? If you remove two areas — there are two types of deserts, one cold desert and one hot desert — remove them, then everywhere there will be only forests. Almost the whole Earth will be forest. Even where it's coldest, even there, there are tremendous forests. They are called boreal forests, like Siberian forests, coniferous forests. All these are there, there are forests even there.
Before human misbehavior, almost the whole Earth was forest. Remove deserts and areas completely covered with snow. Then, if you remove them, by continuously reducing, we brought it to 30%, which is also a government figure. In this, when you include the quality of forests, then it hits even harder. Governments, somehow, to get rid of responsibility, declare somewhere where density is very less, and what do they declare? That this is Forest. Where Uni or monoculture has happened, and what do they say then? "This is a forest."
If there's no forest, then who will absorb carbon? And forests can't be there — you are increasing population, where will they live? For them to eat, there's a need to grow food, right? From where will fields come? Only by cutting forests, right?
And our forest cover is consistently decreasing every year. Total, 4,000 million hectares of forest exist on Earth. But just in the last 10 years, we removed 500 million hectares from it. We are in such a hurry — "Come on, baby, make it fast!" We are in a big hurry. Are you aware where forests are cut the most? In poor countries like India. Between 2015 to 2020, among the countries where the most forest cover was removed, one is India.
It wants development as fast as possible. And which are the most well-preserved forests? Your temperate forests of Europe, etc. And then your Siberian forests, etc., above, right? They are still saved. Where are most being cut? In Brazil, in Africa, in India, in Malaysia, in Indonesia.
One who became rich didn't become rich just like that. He became rich only because he'll enjoy, do as he wishes, exploit others. Just like a rich man sits on top of the poor, similarly, a rich country will also sit on top of poor countries, right? So what's the solution?
Until we don't change humans, how can we change a country? Can we change it? If we don't change humans, then how will policies change? Who will change the policies? Vedanta asks, 'Who is the doer? Who is the doer? Without changing the doer, can the deed change?'
So with you, your organization is trying to change this doer, actor continuously, but it doesn't seem that our pace is adequate. The scale at which this work should happen — it's happening at a much smaller scale and time.
(Towards the slide and chart.)
This 39 — how will it stop friend? Now this has reached 30, almost. Okay, it's 2015. It's falling like this. Now, the population curve — if you flip it and put it on top of this, then how will both become? Exactly the same. Population increase, forest decrease.
Let me give you a figure. Weak-hearted, don't listen. Or those who ate too much, don't listen—you will throw up. Just in the last 50 years, in totality, whatever our wild population was inside forests, we have finished it 75%. Meaning, in forests worldwide, if there used to be 40 animals or birds, then in just 50 years, we reduced it to 10. Cleared 75%.
This is terrestrial — those who live on land. And when you talk about those who live underwater— cleared 85%. Nothing is surviving on this Earth except us. We are not leaving anyone at all. Absolutely no one is surviving. Just think — 85% population decline. Human numbers keep increasing, and in just the last 50 years, we finished 85%. They absolutely didn't survive. And where will they survive? They used to live here only. They lived here only. How will they survive?
Gita isn't here now because it will take you to heaven. Gita is here because maybe it will save Earth. Forget about heaven. Now, if Earth survives, that itself is a big thing.
How will it stop? What's the solution? Common man is the solution. Because the countries in the world doing the most emissions — they're all democratic. G20 — you know, right? G20 is responsible for 80 to 90% of the world's carbon emissions. And G20 is fully democratic.
What am I trying to say? Matter is in whose hands? Matter is in your hands. But they are fooling you. You are being entangled in such issues, which are completely fixed so that you don't talk about this.
The six countries in the world that emit the most—US, China, India, Russia, the European Union, Brazil—all of these are either democratic or at least semi-democratic. This isn't being done by one politician. This is being done by the public. This — we are making happen.
Questioner: Acharya Ji, like how we organize book stalls in our cities, now you have shown such a big issue. But when we work on the ground, you know, this generation above us or even our generation is a bit unaware about things. So how can we focus towards the future generation? Because this generation isn't ready to change at all. So they won't survive. So how will they change?
Towards the future — since we are outside the organization — while staying outside, how can we put our full effort? What do you expect from us? You have told us this matter, but how should we spread this matter around us more forcefully? Meaning, increase its rate much more?
Acharya Prashant: Look, the matter isn't so much about age. Otherwise, it's possible that someone is 70 years old. This issue is very straightforward. There's no big complexity—that someone should have studied engineering or math or science or climate science to understand this. There's nothing like that.
It's about intention. And do you know what's wrong with intention? "I'll do anything only when I get some benefit from it."
"What will I get in this? I'm 70 years old. I know I'll die in five years. So if I cut my consumption, then for whom? Suppose I'm saying I'm stopping my consumption for coming generations. So I'll die. What will I get from them? I gave them something — what did I get in return?" That’s all.
These feelings that are inside humans that I am a human who is born to consume, who is separate from the world, who can fulfill his self-interest, can find happiness by destroying others — as long as this thing remains inside humans, till then, fighting it is very difficult.
Look, child, if it could happen any other way, I would have done it. There's no way other than spirituality. There is no way. If it seems difficult to you, then what to do?
Question: No, it's not difficult.
Acharya Prashant: If the challenge is difficult, then the ways will also be difficult, right? If the ways were easy, then I would have taken them first.
Question: The solution is only this — that those who are understanding this matter a bit, they have to leave their fears behind and just plunge in.
Acharya Prashant: You have to plunge in. You'll have to say this matter. You have to say it openly. You're not speaking. Otherwise, quite a bit of this is what I've already told on different occasions. You know, and all this is publicly available information. You yourself should know what to do with this. You just have to take printouts and then stick them somewhere or distribute them.
What else to do? You go to a book stall. I understand that matter, and from the tone of speaking, I also understand that there's courage. And that courage—very few people have in our place. Our people are very scared. It is like this — like it is now that I'm looking here, and all are looking there. (Explaining with his hands.) Not looking together in any direction.
Questioner: I only understand now that you have to come out keeping life completely on palm leaving all beliefs behind.
Acharya Prashant: It's not like that. Now we are very clever people, right?
Question: Won't survive at all.
Acharya Prashant: Yes! We think of ourselves as very smart people. We say, "No, no, don't take the risk of going 50/50. We try to maintain both sides, don't make anyone angry." So nothing much can happen with that.
I personally console myself that I did the maximum that I could do, right? When I look here, I also know that just explaining these figures to others won't help. Because even those figures who know about this — even they haven't thought about changing their ways. Understand, until you change a person's core, until you change their center, till then, first thing is, they don't want to know these figures. And even if they learn them, they'll say, "So what? What difference does it make to me? Just have fun."
Right now this program of yours is going on. Look at how many people from the organization you can see. It's an organization of 250 people, where about half of the people would just do your counseling work and nothing else. Out of those, you can't even count a few. Look how many people are here. Just try to find your counselor. See if you can find them.
Forget that you're with us today, it's the 29th. Even on the 29th, the organization can't attend the session. They all together are about 40% people who are still chasing them and getting after them, calling them, saying, "Do enrollment, do enrollment." This is not how a mission works. Think about it. You're coming here from so far, and those who are from here — they don't have the opportunity to sit here in front. I'm talking about the organization's people.
We're still stuck on phones, and what will happen with that? It's a country of 150 crore people, a world of 850 crore people. These few people of mine — how many people can they connect with? And if you connect with 10, then one understands. This is a very, very small number that I'm working with. Very small number. And those who should be with me aren't with me. They are a burden. They are a challenge. They are a very big burden. We have to carry them every month, and a lot of effort goes into taking them along with the organization.
There's only one way. Just as you understood, someone else will understand the same way. And if someone understands the same way as you understood, through the same medium, then you'll have to bring them to where you're standing. Now, you can think that I'm speaking for my own benefit, that I want to build some grand house or mansion. Or you can think that this is the only solution that I can see. You will have to use all your energy to bring people closer to the Gita.
You can't say that you're a customer and the organization is a shop. You came, bought something from here, and then you left. No, no, no, no! If you're understanding what's being said, then go and bring other people. Catch them, show them these sessions, don't let them run away. And there's no other way.
As long as only these few people are advocating the organization's mission, then it would take a lot of time to complete the mission. Even these few people have to face a lot of opposition—from you people only. Even they break and lose their hope. If this number increases, then their strength to face opposition also increases. Right now, they see that it's us versus the world. It's the 150 of us versus the entire world. And the entire world includes the Gita community also. Most of the troubles come from them only.
In my view, there's no way other than this. It's possible that there is a misunderstanding—absolutely possible. But as much as I understood this issue, I am telling you very surface-level things, as much as can be explained in an hour. But going deep into this, and looking at how many ways work is happening in the world to see if maybe there's a solution possible somewhere—there's no solution anywhere.
There's a startup right now that is saying they will decarbonize the atmosphere. I read about it in detail and found out that what they're doing is completely fake work. Nothing's going to happen with this. They'll just collect funds and fool a lot of people. And many such things are happening. Some will file a technological solution, some will do something else.
The only solution that I could see that works, is working, and we have proof of concept. If I take those people who are truly connected with me, then their per capita emission and all those works that cause harm to the Earth are reduced by at least 70 to 80%. So I have proof of concept too.
Whoever comes to the Gita becomes a blessing for this planet and for all species. I know this, and I know this—this is proven. Constantly proven.
But that number is very small. All problems are because of the numbers, the numbers, the numbers. The resources and the numbers—everything is getting stuck there. Those who know the organization don't hesitate at all to say that our organization is doing the world's most necessary work right now. And maybe we are alone in doing that work in such a way that success is coming. But this necessary work is happening on a very small scale.
Some people say, "That's the responsibility of the organization, not ours." I don't know whether you consider yourself the organization's customer or what you consider yourself as. Don't do it in the name of the organization—do it for yourself. But do it.
(Poem dedication from a participant.)
Even today, my heart is beating the same way, I don't know why. Lost, wandering, fear now doesn't knock at the door. Lost, wandering, fear now doesn't knock at the door. It's fun, my lover stays in my embrace. It's fun, my lover stays in my embrace. No more, Don't play games of chase and catch anymore. The world and soul are one, so now spread this light. True happiness can't be described, it's deep within courage. Courage and love tied together—Guru's mantra lit this lamp. Courage and love tied together—Guru's mantra lit this lamp.
Sir, you have a saying that where there is love, there is courage. These five-six lines came to my mind about that.
